Article 6.3.4.3 Mathematical Models of Human-Induced Global Change
نویسنده
چکیده
Complex mathematical models requiring major computing power to tease out their implications are currently the main theoretical tool used to understand and predict the response of the climate system to external forcing, such as that resulting from the current human perturbation to greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. These models developed quickly over the last half of the 20 century and are in use at several modeling centers around the world. They typically contain sub-models of the atmosphere, land, and ocean, and sometimes also the biosphere. They are used to simulate climate change by imposing an external forcing similar to what the real climate has experienced over the last century and is projected to experience in the coming one. Confidence in their predictions of the gross geographical distribution of temperature change is probably warranted. However, confidence in the overall magnitude of the simulated change is not, mainly due to the current inability to incorporate important climate feedbacks stemming from processes that cannot be explicitly resolved by the models, such as changes in cloudiness as climate warms. The models predict not only a temperature response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, but also an increase in the intensity of the global hydrologic cycle. Though there is reason to have some confidence in this globalscale prediction, the simulated regional-scale changes in the hydrologic cycle are almost certainly not trustworthy. Increasing confidence in model predictions in these critical areas will involve improving the dialogue between model and observations, as well as wise investment of additional computational resources.
منابع مشابه
Earth as Humans’ Habitat: Global Climate Change and the Health of Populations
Human-induced climate change, with such rapid and continuing global-scale warming, is historically unprecedented and signifies that human pressures on Earth’s life-supporting natural systems now exceed the planet’s bio-geo-capacity. The risks from climate change to health and survival in populations are diverse, as are the social and political ramifications. Although attributing observed health...
متن کاملEvaluating the performance of Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCM) in simulating temperature variable in Ahwaz and Abadan stations
Climate changes caused by global warming has presented challenges to human society. Studying the Changes of climate variables in the future decades by using output data’s of Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCM) is a way of perusing climate fluctuation in a region. In this study, the focus is on the AOGCM proceeds in simulating of variable temperature in Ahwaz and Abadan stations. ...
متن کاملSimulation of rice production under climate change scenarios in the Southern coasts of Caspian Sea
Climate change has direct and indirect consequences on crop production and food security. Agriculture and cropproduction is one of the factors which depend on the weather conditions and it provides the human requirements inmany aspects. The objective of this study is to assess the impacts of future climatic change on irrigated rice yieldusing the CERES-Rice model in the Southern Coast of Caspia...
متن کاملThinking Out of the Box: A Green and Social Climate Fund; Comment on “Politics, Power, Poverty and Global Health: Systems and Frames”
Solomon Benatar’s paper “Politics, Power, Poverty and Global Health: Systems and Frames” examines the inequitable state of global health challenging readers to extend the discourse on global health beyond conventional boundaries by addressing the interconnectedness of planetary life. Our response explores existing models of international cooperation, assessing how modifying them may achieve the...
متن کامل